Bulletin n. 3/2014
February 2015
CONTENTS
  • Section A) The theory and practise of the federal states and multi-level systems of government
  • Section B) Global governance and international organizations
  • Section C) Regional integration processes
  • Section D) Federalism as a political idea
    • Bruneau Catherine, Delatte Anne-Laure, Fouquau Julien
    Was the European sovereign crisis self-fulfilling? Empirical evidence about the drivers of market sentiments
    in Journal of Macroeconomics , Volume 42, December 2014 ,  2014 ,  38-51
    We investigate the presence of self-fulfilling dynamics during the European sovereign crisis in the light of a theoretical model that we bring to the data. Our empirical framework allows us to empirically test the presence of self-fulfilling dynamics and to identify what may have driven the market sentiment during this crisis. To do so we estimate the probability of default of five European “peripheral” countries during January 2006 to September 2011 with a panel smooth threshold regression. Our estimation results suggest that (1) both the fundamentals and “animal spirit” ignited the European sovereign crisis; (2) we isolate the risk indicator through which investors’ belief coordinate.
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