Bulletin n. 1-2/2014
November 2014
CONTENTS
  • Section A) The theory and practise of the federal states and multi-level systems of government
  • Section B) Global governance and international organizations
  • Section C) Regional integration processes
  • Section D) Federalism as a political idea
    • Cerra Valerie, Chaman Saxena Sweta
    Out-of-Sample Performance of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach to the Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa
    in Journal of African Economies , Volume 23 Issue 3 June 2014 ,  2014 ,  346-360
    This paper tests the performance of the macroeconomic balance (MB) approach (or fundamental equilibrium exchange rate approach) in predicting future movements of real exchange rates (RERs) and current accounts. The analysis is conducted for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Econometric evidence shows that a random walk beats current account and RER misalignments from the MB approach in out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. However, the MB approach helps to predict the direction of change of these variables.
    ©2001 - 2020 - Centro Studi sul Federalismo - P. IVA 94067130016